Statistics Seminar（2014-07）
Topic:Modeling China's Business-Cycle in a Data Rich Environment
Speaker:Zhihong Chen, University of International Business and Economics
Time:Thursday, 27 March, 14:00-15:00
Location:Room 217, Guanghua Building 2
Abstract:China’s rapid growth has attracted worldwide attentions. However, China’s economy started slowing down since March 2011. Dating business cycle has become increasingly important. In a data rich environment, this paper firstly defines China’s business cycle into three phases. Then it applies an original ordered-probit framework, using dynamic factors extracted from a large set of explanatory variables as forecasters, to forecast the probability of phases switching. It also discusses how to ascertain the economy-wide turning points.
About the speaker:陈志鸿 ，，对外经济商业大学国际经济商业学院数目经济学系教授。 。。。。陈教授于南开大学数学学院获得概率论与数理统计学士学位 ，，美国波士顿学院获得经济学硕士和博士学位。 。。。。研究领域为计量经济学 ，，现在的研究兴趣包括因子模子的理论及其在宏观预测中的应用 ，，需求系统的预计以及相关的福利问题等。 。。。。陈教授已经在包括《Journal of Econometrics》 ，，《Canadian Journal of Economics》等学术期刊揭晓论文10篇 ，，并主持国家自然科学基金 ，，教育部新世纪人才等研究课题。 。。。。
